104.) Sunderland v Norwich - LAY 0-0 @ 11
Pre-bet
Maybe a slightly adventurous bet here. But I've took into account that is a vital game for bottom of the league Sunderland at home against one of their relegation rivals. Norwich have been leaking plenty of goals and look poor defensively away from home in recent weeks (although they did beat WBA in their last away game) and Sunderland have looked improved since the arrival of Gus Poyet as manager. Slight worry with this bet is there is no standout goalscorer on either side. Sunderland do have Fletcher on the bench though and will surely come if the game is still 0-0 in the second half.
Saturday 21 December 2013
Monday 9 December 2013
Bet 103
103.) Sunderland v Tottenham - LAY Dembele Anytime Goalscorer @ 14.5
Pre-bet
Noticed that Dembele for Tottenham rarely scores many goals and was playing in a holding midfield role for this game. Also noted Sunderland's defensive performance against Man City at home and couldn't see Tottenham scoring many goals here given their struggles infront of goal.
Result
Sunderland 1-2 Tottenham - Dembele didn't score and was subbed after "73 (+£1.42)
Verdict
A little bit of panic with this bet because a Dembele cross was deflected by O'Shea into his own goal. Bar that though Dembele didn't see sight of goal and was subbed before the end, which is always a plus when laying someone to score. 3/5
Pre-bet
Noticed that Dembele for Tottenham rarely scores many goals and was playing in a holding midfield role for this game. Also noted Sunderland's defensive performance against Man City at home and couldn't see Tottenham scoring many goals here given their struggles infront of goal.
Result
Sunderland 1-2 Tottenham - Dembele didn't score and was subbed after "73 (+£1.42)
Verdict
A little bit of panic with this bet because a Dembele cross was deflected by O'Shea into his own goal. Bar that though Dembele didn't see sight of goal and was subbed before the end, which is always a plus when laying someone to score. 3/5
Bet 102
102.) Crystal Palace v Cardiff - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.09
Pre-bet
Again my favourite bet of mine at the minute picking two teams, in betting under 4.5 goals in games involving two teams who struggle to score goals and who's strength lie in their defence.
Result
Crystal Palace 2-0 Cardiff (+£1.68)
Verdict
Happy with this bet, a couple of couple of goals was about as many as I was expecting. Crystal Palace look much imporved of late. 4/5
Pre-bet
Again my favourite bet of mine at the minute picking two teams, in betting under 4.5 goals in games involving two teams who struggle to score goals and who's strength lie in their defence.
Result
Crystal Palace 2-0 Cardiff (+£1.68)
Verdict
Happy with this bet, a couple of couple of goals was about as many as I was expecting. Crystal Palace look much imporved of late. 4/5
Bet 101
101.) Man United v Newcastle - BACK Under 3.5 goals (IP "51) @ 1.03
Pre-bet
Man United were clearly struggling in this game and didn't look a great threat going forward. I deemed four goals here very unlikely.
Result
Man United 0-1 Newcastle (+£0.73)
Verdict
A good bet and one that I expect to win given the short odds. Newcastle scored and there was the potential there for Man United to come back and possible score some goals, but it never happened. 4/5
Pre-bet
Man United were clearly struggling in this game and didn't look a great threat going forward. I deemed four goals here very unlikely.
Result
Man United 0-1 Newcastle (+£0.73)
Verdict
A good bet and one that I expect to win given the short odds. Newcastle scored and there was the potential there for Man United to come back and possible score some goals, but it never happened. 4/5
Thursday 5 December 2013
Review#1
Here's my first review after 100 bets of this challenge:
Current Bank: £77.96
P/L: -£22.04
No. of bets: 100
Winning Bets: 92
Losing Bets: 8
Average bet rating (from Bet 88 to 100): 3.5
1s - 1
2s - 4
3s - 1
4s - 2
5s - 5
Losing Bets
20.) Malaga v Dortmund - LAY 0-0 @ 11.5
35.) Basel v Tottenham - BACK Sending Off? No @ 1.33
41.) Fulham v Chelsea - BACK Fulham (+2.5) @ 1.14
42.) Sunderland v Everton - LAY 1-0 @ 11.5
69.) Hull v Aston Villa - LAY 0-0 @ 9.2
73.) Aston Villa v Tottenham - LAY Townsend AGS @ 5.6
87.) Man City v CSKA Moscow - LAY Over 6.5 goals @ 18
95.) Mexico v New Zealand - LAY Over 5.5 goals @ 11.5
I've only been keeping a diary of bets since bet 88 so I don't have the full written evidence to full analysis my performance. But the 3.5 rating may suggest I'm fairly happy with the bets I've had since I started keeping note but I don't think it does. I want to keep this rating as high as possible of course but the key perhaps is to avoid bets lower than 3 and any bet rating given less 3 or less is a bad one or a questionable one in my eyes. I should mostly me aiming for 4s and 5s. From the bets I notice 6 out of the 13 bets I have given a 3 rating or less, I need to improve on this, although I realise it is impossible for every bet to run smoothly I'd like to see the majority do so because this indicates good betting choices and that will equal profit in the long-run.
Having looked back through the losing bets I do notice some common themes. 4 out of the 8 losing bets are from games outside of the Premiership, Bet 20 and 87 are both Champions League, Bet 35 is a Europa League game and 95 a World Cup qualifier. The majority of my bets have been from Premiership games, losing bets from other competition are over-represented here and a big reason for me operating at a loss. The lessons here should really be to stick to what you know best and don't bet on games you little knowledge in (Bets 20 and 95 fall foul to this). In addition a few of the bets fall outside the odds range I'm trying to stay clear from now Bets 35, 41 and 73 are all bets at odds which are probably too short for this challenge because I'm staking a large proportion of my bank each time. I have tried reverse logic in a few of my bets as in going against what even I expected hoping that the odds had taken this into account too much. In hindsight the Bet 69 and 87 look particularly poor in this regard as the games ended with results which weren't entirely unpredictable given what had happened previously.
True to say you are always looking for value you with your bets. But I always feel more comfortable when you actually have a great confidence in that thing happening. I have a particularly good record with the Under 4.5 goals market having got 12 out of 12 correct so far.
Current Bank: £77.96
P/L: -£22.04
No. of bets: 100
Winning Bets: 92
Losing Bets: 8
Average bet rating (from Bet 88 to 100): 3.5
1s - 1
2s - 4
3s - 1
4s - 2
5s - 5
Losing Bets
20.) Malaga v Dortmund - LAY 0-0 @ 11.5
35.) Basel v Tottenham - BACK Sending Off? No @ 1.33
41.) Fulham v Chelsea - BACK Fulham (+2.5) @ 1.14
42.) Sunderland v Everton - LAY 1-0 @ 11.5
69.) Hull v Aston Villa - LAY 0-0 @ 9.2
73.) Aston Villa v Tottenham - LAY Townsend AGS @ 5.6
87.) Man City v CSKA Moscow - LAY Over 6.5 goals @ 18
95.) Mexico v New Zealand - LAY Over 5.5 goals @ 11.5
I've only been keeping a diary of bets since bet 88 so I don't have the full written evidence to full analysis my performance. But the 3.5 rating may suggest I'm fairly happy with the bets I've had since I started keeping note but I don't think it does. I want to keep this rating as high as possible of course but the key perhaps is to avoid bets lower than 3 and any bet rating given less 3 or less is a bad one or a questionable one in my eyes. I should mostly me aiming for 4s and 5s. From the bets I notice 6 out of the 13 bets I have given a 3 rating or less, I need to improve on this, although I realise it is impossible for every bet to run smoothly I'd like to see the majority do so because this indicates good betting choices and that will equal profit in the long-run.
Having looked back through the losing bets I do notice some common themes. 4 out of the 8 losing bets are from games outside of the Premiership, Bet 20 and 87 are both Champions League, Bet 35 is a Europa League game and 95 a World Cup qualifier. The majority of my bets have been from Premiership games, losing bets from other competition are over-represented here and a big reason for me operating at a loss. The lessons here should really be to stick to what you know best and don't bet on games you little knowledge in (Bets 20 and 95 fall foul to this). In addition a few of the bets fall outside the odds range I'm trying to stay clear from now Bets 35, 41 and 73 are all bets at odds which are probably too short for this challenge because I'm staking a large proportion of my bank each time. I have tried reverse logic in a few of my bets as in going against what even I expected hoping that the odds had taken this into account too much. In hindsight the Bet 69 and 87 look particularly poor in this regard as the games ended with results which weren't entirely unpredictable given what had happened previously.
True to say you are always looking for value you with your bets. But I always feel more comfortable when you actually have a great confidence in that thing happening. I have a particularly good record with the Under 4.5 goals market having got 12 out of 12 correct so far.
Wednesday 4 December 2013
Bet 100
100.) Stoke v Cardiff - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.10
Pre-bet
This is a game that screams not many goals at you. My only slight reservation is that Robert Huth is missing for Stoke and he is a key component of their defence. But the strengths of both these teams lie in the defensive work, hard-work and set-pieces. Both teams lack a consistent goalscorer in their team and I think each others strengths look likely to cancel each other out. It is difficult to see anything other than a close, tight game with not many goals here. For some reason this game being on a midweek seems to me increase the likelihood of this, I'm not even sure there's evidence to back this up but I've always had the intuition that sometimes midweek games have a greater tendency to fizzle out into low-scoring games.
Result
Stoke 0-0 Cardiff (+£1.80)
Verdict
Game went just as planned really, two teams did cancel each other out and very few goal-scoring chances in the game. 5/5
Pre-bet
This is a game that screams not many goals at you. My only slight reservation is that Robert Huth is missing for Stoke and he is a key component of their defence. But the strengths of both these teams lie in the defensive work, hard-work and set-pieces. Both teams lack a consistent goalscorer in their team and I think each others strengths look likely to cancel each other out. It is difficult to see anything other than a close, tight game with not many goals here. For some reason this game being on a midweek seems to me increase the likelihood of this, I'm not even sure there's evidence to back this up but I've always had the intuition that sometimes midweek games have a greater tendency to fizzle out into low-scoring games.
Result
Stoke 0-0 Cardiff (+£1.80)
Verdict
Game went just as planned really, two teams did cancel each other out and very few goal-scoring chances in the game. 5/5
Tuesday 3 December 2013
Bet 99
99.) Crystal Palace v West Ham - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.12
Pre-bet
I can't forsee many goals in this one. Crystal Palace have improved defensively recently and have only conceded one in their last three games. Tony Pulis always builds his team on strong defence and keeping it tight will surely be a large part of the plan for this game against West Ham. The visitors struggle for goals away from home and rarely score more than one. Although they have impressed me this season West Ham I think this will be a tough game for them against a Crystal Palace who I don't think is as bad as the odds suggest. More than four goals seems unlikely because Palace have struggled for goals all season, the only way I see this happening if West Ham put in a really good performance and the Palace from earlier in the season turns up.
Result
Crystal Palace 1-0 West Ham (+£2.11)
Verdict
The game went rather like I predicted with it being a tight game and not many chances. There was a few disallowed goals in this game but my bet was never in any sort of threat. 5/5
Pre-bet
I can't forsee many goals in this one. Crystal Palace have improved defensively recently and have only conceded one in their last three games. Tony Pulis always builds his team on strong defence and keeping it tight will surely be a large part of the plan for this game against West Ham. The visitors struggle for goals away from home and rarely score more than one. Although they have impressed me this season West Ham I think this will be a tough game for them against a Crystal Palace who I don't think is as bad as the odds suggest. More than four goals seems unlikely because Palace have struggled for goals all season, the only way I see this happening if West Ham put in a really good performance and the Palace from earlier in the season turns up.
Result
Crystal Palace 1-0 West Ham (+£2.11)
Verdict
The game went rather like I predicted with it being a tight game and not many chances. There was a few disallowed goals in this game but my bet was never in any sort of threat. 5/5
Monday 25 November 2013
Bet 98
98.) West Brom v Aston Villa - LAY 0-0 @ 12
Pre-bet
Expect quite a lively game in this Midlands derby. It is true that both teams have been strong defnisviely recently (especially Aston Villa) but I feel there's plenty of attacking talent on display in this game to get the one goal required. Aston Villa start with two strikers in Benteke and Kozack. Whilst West Brom perhaps carry a little less attacking threat, they still have the likes of Sessegnon and Long who are always lively players capable of causing problem.
Result
West Brom 2-2 Aston Villa (+1.56)
Verdict
I was expecting a lively game and this is just what happened. Long was in brilliant form for West Brom and the first goal came after just three minutes. The rest of the game was a open, attacking affair and further validated my bet. 5/5
Pre-bet
Expect quite a lively game in this Midlands derby. It is true that both teams have been strong defnisviely recently (especially Aston Villa) but I feel there's plenty of attacking talent on display in this game to get the one goal required. Aston Villa start with two strikers in Benteke and Kozack. Whilst West Brom perhaps carry a little less attacking threat, they still have the likes of Sessegnon and Long who are always lively players capable of causing problem.
Result
West Brom 2-2 Aston Villa (+1.56)
Verdict
I was expecting a lively game and this is just what happened. Long was in brilliant form for West Brom and the first goal came after just three minutes. The rest of the game was a open, attacking affair and further validated my bet. 5/5
Friday 22 November 2013
Bet 97
97.) Hull City v Crystal Palace - LAY 3-0 @ 20
Pre-bet
These two teams were promoted to the Premier League together but have both had very different starts to the season. Hull City have been involved in a number of low-scoring games and their strength has been keeping the game tight defensively. Looks like Palace will still be under caretaker manager Keith Mullen for this game, although Tony Pulis looks set to be announced new manager and therefore may have some impact in this game. Palace put in a decent performance against Everton in their last game and it was only due to poor finishing that they don't win the game. Despite the big gap in league positions I don't think there's a great difference in the quality between the two squads and I expect a close game with not many goals here. Therefore 3-0 looks incredibly unlikely seeing as Hull have only scored 9 in their first 11 games and that Palace have looked a more defensively secure in recent games.
Result
Hull 0-1 Crystal Palace (+£0.89)
Verdict
Pretty much got my prediction of the game spot on here. Turned into a close encounter like I was expecting and a Palace win wasn't a total surprise for me here. Hull still lack goal threat. 5/5
Pre-bet
These two teams were promoted to the Premier League together but have both had very different starts to the season. Hull City have been involved in a number of low-scoring games and their strength has been keeping the game tight defensively. Looks like Palace will still be under caretaker manager Keith Mullen for this game, although Tony Pulis looks set to be announced new manager and therefore may have some impact in this game. Palace put in a decent performance against Everton in their last game and it was only due to poor finishing that they don't win the game. Despite the big gap in league positions I don't think there's a great difference in the quality between the two squads and I expect a close game with not many goals here. Therefore 3-0 looks incredibly unlikely seeing as Hull have only scored 9 in their first 11 games and that Palace have looked a more defensively secure in recent games.
Result
Hull 0-1 Crystal Palace (+£0.89)
Verdict
Pretty much got my prediction of the game spot on here. Turned into a close encounter like I was expecting and a Palace win wasn't a total surprise for me here. Hull still lack goal threat. 5/5
Friday 15 November 2013
Bet 96
96.) England v Chile - LAY 0-0 @ 13.5
Pre-bet
Must be said I'm not usually much of a fan of betting on friendlies but I thought this was an opportunity too good to pass up. Chile are a very attacking team and almost always involved in high-scoring games. England do have a number of players missing for this game but still have decent enough attacking threats including a few players who will be eager to impress to try and force their way into the squad for the World Cup in Brazil. Overall a 0-0 looks unlikely here, freindlies can sometimes turn out to be stale affairs but I think this one looks more likely to into an open, attacking game.
Result
England 0-2 Chile (+£1.33)
Verdict
Didn't turn out quite as attacking as I was expecting. The second half was a little sedate although there was enough attacking play first to warrant it not ending 0-0. 2/5
Pre-bet
Must be said I'm not usually much of a fan of betting on friendlies but I thought this was an opportunity too good to pass up. Chile are a very attacking team and almost always involved in high-scoring games. England do have a number of players missing for this game but still have decent enough attacking threats including a few players who will be eager to impress to try and force their way into the squad for the World Cup in Brazil. Overall a 0-0 looks unlikely here, freindlies can sometimes turn out to be stale affairs but I think this one looks more likely to into an open, attacking game.
Result
England 0-2 Chile (+£1.33)
Verdict
Didn't turn out quite as attacking as I was expecting. The second half was a little sedate although there was enough attacking play first to warrant it not ending 0-0. 2/5
Wednesday 13 November 2013
Bet 95
95.) Mexico v New Zealand - LAY Over 5.5 goals @ 11.5
Pre-bet
There is a quite a few assumptions going on in this bet. Although I think they are fair. New Zealand will surely set-up in a very defensive manner here knowing the best chance they have of qualifying for the World Cup is to keep this game tight, even willingly take a narrow defeat here and hope they can overcome the defect in the second leg. There's the danger with this bet that Mexico could indeed blow New Zealand away and score a number of goals. Mexico have chosen a squad of players solely based in the domestic league, hard to say whether this is an advantage or a disadvantage. On one hand all the players will be use to the conditions and won't have much traveling to undertake whereas they will be without their talented European-based players. Mexico haven't been in great form during the qualifiers, it is indeed a little bit of a shock they are having to go through this play-off after finishing only 4th in the CONCACAF qualifying with the players at their disposal they should be challenging for top spot. Overall I see a good chance of a solid New Zealand display which could frustrate Mexico. There's plenty of margin for error with this bet as well, Mexico could win quite handsomely say four or five-nil and this bet would still be a winner.
Result
Mexico 5-1 New Zealand (-£23.31)
Verdict
In hindsight easy to see that I didn't have the required knowledge of the two teams to really have any right to be betting in this game. I try to follow international football as best I can but truthfully I've not watched either of these team for a while. So I was doing nothing but going off statistics and previous results. Since my challenge is meant to be a cautious attempt at betting on a things that I'm certain on this was definitely a bad move. Just because there's no games on you have a good knowledge of there's the great temptation to have a bet on a game you usually wouldn't. This was the case here but hopefully I can learn from this and never do such a thing again. 1/5
Pre-bet
There is a quite a few assumptions going on in this bet. Although I think they are fair. New Zealand will surely set-up in a very defensive manner here knowing the best chance they have of qualifying for the World Cup is to keep this game tight, even willingly take a narrow defeat here and hope they can overcome the defect in the second leg. There's the danger with this bet that Mexico could indeed blow New Zealand away and score a number of goals. Mexico have chosen a squad of players solely based in the domestic league, hard to say whether this is an advantage or a disadvantage. On one hand all the players will be use to the conditions and won't have much traveling to undertake whereas they will be without their talented European-based players. Mexico haven't been in great form during the qualifiers, it is indeed a little bit of a shock they are having to go through this play-off after finishing only 4th in the CONCACAF qualifying with the players at their disposal they should be challenging for top spot. Overall I see a good chance of a solid New Zealand display which could frustrate Mexico. There's plenty of margin for error with this bet as well, Mexico could win quite handsomely say four or five-nil and this bet would still be a winner.
Result
Mexico 5-1 New Zealand (-£23.31)
Verdict
In hindsight easy to see that I didn't have the required knowledge of the two teams to really have any right to be betting in this game. I try to follow international football as best I can but truthfully I've not watched either of these team for a while. So I was doing nothing but going off statistics and previous results. Since my challenge is meant to be a cautious attempt at betting on a things that I'm certain on this was definitely a bad move. Just because there's no games on you have a good knowledge of there's the great temptation to have a bet on a game you usually wouldn't. This was the case here but hopefully I can learn from this and never do such a thing again. 1/5
Sunday 10 November 2013
Bet 94
94.) Man City v Sunderland - LAY 0-0 @ 22
Pre-bet
Difficult to see this one ending 0-0. Man City are in such great form going forward, true they are without Silva for this one but Aguero especially is in fine goalscoring form at the moment. Up against one of the weakest defences in the league it would be a big surprise if they don't score. In addition I think this Sunderland team has got some decent attacking options, Fletcher is a good goalscorer and they have a few set-pieces specialist in their team (Gardner & Larsson) who are capable of producing something out of nothing. In addition Man City is always weaker without Kompany in their defence. Only worry for this bet is that Sunderland line-up really defensively and manage to hold out for a 0-0 draw. But I deem this very unlikely given Man City recent form and attacking threat.
Result
Man City 0-1 Sunderland (+£1.04)
Verdict
Despite this being a winning bet, I don't think it was such a good one. Sunderland put in a much better defensive performance than I was expecting. O.Shea & Brown were rightly praised for keeping Man City attack quiet. In addition I thought Man City missed the creativity of David Silva, he is a common key component in Man City's best side. However I rightly had concerns about Man City denfence with no Kompany, and Nastasić was also out. But this game could have very easily ended 0-0 and for that reason it was a questionable bet. 2/5
Pre-bet
Difficult to see this one ending 0-0. Man City are in such great form going forward, true they are without Silva for this one but Aguero especially is in fine goalscoring form at the moment. Up against one of the weakest defences in the league it would be a big surprise if they don't score. In addition I think this Sunderland team has got some decent attacking options, Fletcher is a good goalscorer and they have a few set-pieces specialist in their team (Gardner & Larsson) who are capable of producing something out of nothing. In addition Man City is always weaker without Kompany in their defence. Only worry for this bet is that Sunderland line-up really defensively and manage to hold out for a 0-0 draw. But I deem this very unlikely given Man City recent form and attacking threat.
Result
Man City 0-1 Sunderland (+£1.04)
Verdict
Despite this being a winning bet, I don't think it was such a good one. Sunderland put in a much better defensive performance than I was expecting. O.Shea & Brown were rightly praised for keeping Man City attack quiet. In addition I thought Man City missed the creativity of David Silva, he is a common key component in Man City's best side. However I rightly had concerns about Man City denfence with no Kompany, and Nastasić was also out. But this game could have very easily ended 0-0 and for that reason it was a questionable bet. 2/5
Bet 93
93.) Tottenham v Newcastle - LAY Over 5.5 goals @ 15
Pre-bet
Placed largely on the fact Tottenham have a really strong defence yet have struggled for goals recently. Newcastle are a difficult team to try and evaluate and are often involved in games with plenty of goals. Overall I think six goals in this game is a little much to ask for in this game. My only worry is that Tottenham may find their goalscoring boots up against a Newcastle defence that has known to be fragile at times.
Result
Tottenham 0-1 Newcastle (+£1.49)
Verdict
I correctly predicted that Tottenham would once against struggle for goals. It is true there probably should have been more than one goal in this game with the amount of chances Tottenham had. Tim Krul had a good game in goal for Newcastle. Six goals never looked likely but there could have easily been a few more goals in this game as it was a rather open and attacking game. 4/5
Pre-bet
Placed largely on the fact Tottenham have a really strong defence yet have struggled for goals recently. Newcastle are a difficult team to try and evaluate and are often involved in games with plenty of goals. Overall I think six goals in this game is a little much to ask for in this game. My only worry is that Tottenham may find their goalscoring boots up against a Newcastle defence that has known to be fragile at times.
Result
Tottenham 0-1 Newcastle (+£1.49)
Verdict
I correctly predicted that Tottenham would once against struggle for goals. It is true there probably should have been more than one goal in this game with the amount of chances Tottenham had. Tim Krul had a good game in goal for Newcastle. Six goals never looked likely but there could have easily been a few more goals in this game as it was a rather open and attacking game. 4/5
Saturday 9 November 2013
Bet 92
92.) Norwich v West Ham - LAY Over 4.5 goals @ 8.6
Post-bet
There is an element of 'this match is on TV so I'll bet on it' in this bet. But when I looked at this fixture initially I thought this looks like a low-scoring game to me. West Ham's game is built on playing with a solid defence, especially away from home. Norwich continue to struggle in-front of goal, scoring only six all season. Despite leaking quite a few goals this season Norwich under Chris Hughton have a history of tight home games against similar quality opposition, they had numerous such examples last season involving one or two goals. My only slight worry is that Norwich go with an attacking line-up in this game playing two strikers and will surely be highly motivated to get a result. West Ham however keep with the tactic of playing no recognized striker in their line-up, which as to be a good thing for my bet.
Result
Norwich 3-1 West Ham (+£2.75)
Verdict
Turned out to be a rather more open game than I was expecting, especially second half. Although it must be said Norwich got back into the game through a goalkeeping mistake which led to the penalty. Beauty of bets at such short odds (or laying longer odds in the case) means there's a great margin of error. I wrongly thought this game wouldn't contain many goals but it didn't turn out that way. Also the fourth came in stoppage time so there wasn't really a time in which I felt there any danger of a fifth goal being scored. 2/5
Post-bet
There is an element of 'this match is on TV so I'll bet on it' in this bet. But when I looked at this fixture initially I thought this looks like a low-scoring game to me. West Ham's game is built on playing with a solid defence, especially away from home. Norwich continue to struggle in-front of goal, scoring only six all season. Despite leaking quite a few goals this season Norwich under Chris Hughton have a history of tight home games against similar quality opposition, they had numerous such examples last season involving one or two goals. My only slight worry is that Norwich go with an attacking line-up in this game playing two strikers and will surely be highly motivated to get a result. West Ham however keep with the tactic of playing no recognized striker in their line-up, which as to be a good thing for my bet.
Result
Norwich 3-1 West Ham (+£2.75)
Verdict
Turned out to be a rather more open game than I was expecting, especially second half. Although it must be said Norwich got back into the game through a goalkeeping mistake which led to the penalty. Beauty of bets at such short odds (or laying longer odds in the case) means there's a great margin of error. I wrongly thought this game wouldn't contain many goals but it didn't turn out that way. Also the fourth came in stoppage time so there wasn't really a time in which I felt there any danger of a fifth goal being scored. 2/5
Bet 91
91.) Liverpool v Fulham - LAY 2-0 @ 12 (IP '32)
Pre-bet
Took this bet in play after watching Liverpool storm to a 2-0 lead against a dejected looking Fulham side. Another goal looked an inevitability with Fulham being pin backed by wave after wave of Liverpool attacks.
Result
Liverpool 4-0 Fulham (+£1.95)
Verdict
Bet was in after only a few minutes of placing. Liverpool did ease off the gas a little second half but my bet was already a winner by this point. That is the only slight danger when taking bets like this in-play that when a team is ahead and in-control they may not have the desire to score another. But overall a very good bet and always nice to see it win so quickly. 4/5
Pre-bet
Took this bet in play after watching Liverpool storm to a 2-0 lead against a dejected looking Fulham side. Another goal looked an inevitability with Fulham being pin backed by wave after wave of Liverpool attacks.
Result
Liverpool 4-0 Fulham (+£1.95)
Verdict
Bet was in after only a few minutes of placing. Liverpool did ease off the gas a little second half but my bet was already a winner by this point. That is the only slight danger when taking bets like this in-play that when a team is ahead and in-control they may not have the desire to score another. But overall a very good bet and always nice to see it win so quickly. 4/5
Bet 90
90.) Liverpool v Fulham – LAY 0-0 @ 23
Pre-bet
I purposely set about this week’s fixtures looking to lay 0-0 in the Fulham game, the fact that they were playing Liverpool at Anfield just confirmed my selection. For Fulham’s defence has looked woeful to me in recent games and they’ve conceded some bad goals down to this poor defending. Up against perhaps the best striking partnership in the Premiership in Suarez and Sturridge it is very difficult not to see at least one goal in this. Despite Fulham’s poor defence they’ve also got numerous decent players in attacking areas and I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see Fulham get a goal in this game also. Overall the only concern is if Liverpool play poorly and Fulham manage to defend well and hold out for a 0-0. I deem this excessively unlikely and I think there will be plenty of shots on goal and chances in this game to get the goal I require.
Result
Liverpool 4-0 Fulham (+£0.92)
Verdict
Turned into a very open game like I predicted. Fulham just couldn't live with the Liverpool attack and this bet was a very easy winner. Good reasoning and the sort of bet I strive for all the time. 5/5
Pre-bet
I purposely set about this week’s fixtures looking to lay 0-0 in the Fulham game, the fact that they were playing Liverpool at Anfield just confirmed my selection. For Fulham’s defence has looked woeful to me in recent games and they’ve conceded some bad goals down to this poor defending. Up against perhaps the best striking partnership in the Premiership in Suarez and Sturridge it is very difficult not to see at least one goal in this. Despite Fulham’s poor defence they’ve also got numerous decent players in attacking areas and I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see Fulham get a goal in this game also. Overall the only concern is if Liverpool play poorly and Fulham manage to defend well and hold out for a 0-0. I deem this excessively unlikely and I think there will be plenty of shots on goal and chances in this game to get the goal I require.
Result
Liverpool 4-0 Fulham (+£0.92)
Verdict
Turned into a very open game like I predicted. Fulham just couldn't live with the Liverpool attack and this bet was a very easy winner. Good reasoning and the sort of bet I strive for all the time. 5/5
Bet 89
89.) Tottenham v Sherrif - BACK Over 1.5 goals @ 1.14
Pre-bet
I watched the reverse fixture between these two sides and it was a very open match that really should have had more than just the two goals in it. Most people would expect a comfortable Tottenham victory here, although Sherrif did set-up attack-minded and had plenty of chances in the reverse fixture but lacked composure in their finishing. Only concern is Tottenham's good defense and that they may settle for a 1-0 victory if they are ahead. This is on the high limit of bets I take on and I don't really want to be backing anything much longer than 1.15 since I'm using 25% stakes at the moment.
Result
Tottenham 2-1 Sherrif (+£2.75)
Verdict
Was a little concerned after first-half passed rather uneventful. Tottenham broke the deadlock on the hour mark and I felt confident my bet would win from that point on. The game did open a little more second half and there was chances for both sides. Tottenham's quality won them the game in the end. But I was rightly aware of Sherrif's threat going forward, they hit the post first half and then got a goal in the second half.
Despite the scare of no goals till the hour mark. I think the bet was sound enough despite it not turning into a truly open game there was enough good chances and shots on goals to validate the bet I went with. 3/5
Pre-bet
I watched the reverse fixture between these two sides and it was a very open match that really should have had more than just the two goals in it. Most people would expect a comfortable Tottenham victory here, although Sherrif did set-up attack-minded and had plenty of chances in the reverse fixture but lacked composure in their finishing. Only concern is Tottenham's good defense and that they may settle for a 1-0 victory if they are ahead. This is on the high limit of bets I take on and I don't really want to be backing anything much longer than 1.15 since I'm using 25% stakes at the moment.
Result
Tottenham 2-1 Sherrif (+£2.75)
Verdict
Was a little concerned after first-half passed rather uneventful. Tottenham broke the deadlock on the hour mark and I felt confident my bet would win from that point on. The game did open a little more second half and there was chances for both sides. Tottenham's quality won them the game in the end. But I was rightly aware of Sherrif's threat going forward, they hit the post first half and then got a goal in the second half.
Despite the scare of no goals till the hour mark. I think the bet was sound enough despite it not turning into a truly open game there was enough good chances and shots on goals to validate the bet I went with. 3/5
Bet 88
88.) Dortmund v Arsenal - LAY 0-0 @ 20.88 (Avg. price)
Pre-match
Two very attacking sides who usually score plenty of goals. Slight reservation about Arsenal's good defensive record recently and them thinking a point would be a good result here. No goals seems highly unlikely.
Result
Dortmund 0-1 Arsenal (+£0.98)
Verdict
The first half didn't see many chances for either team, although Dortmund had a couple of decent openings. Second half much more attacking play but like I suggested pre-match Arsenal's defense looked strong and held up well against Dortmund. Arsenal scored and won the game to make my bet a winner. Overall don't think it was such a great bet considering the price to lay 0-0 was quite big and the fact there was only one goal in the game. Although second half was open a 0-0 wouldn't have been a total surprise. Not the greatest of bets my pre-bet concerns came true and I really should only bet when I have more confidence in my selection. 2/5
Pre-match
Two very attacking sides who usually score plenty of goals. Slight reservation about Arsenal's good defensive record recently and them thinking a point would be a good result here. No goals seems highly unlikely.
Result
Dortmund 0-1 Arsenal (+£0.98)
Verdict
The first half didn't see many chances for either team, although Dortmund had a couple of decent openings. Second half much more attacking play but like I suggested pre-match Arsenal's defense looked strong and held up well against Dortmund. Arsenal scored and won the game to make my bet a winner. Overall don't think it was such a great bet considering the price to lay 0-0 was quite big and the fact there was only one goal in the game. Although second half was open a 0-0 wouldn't have been a total surprise. Not the greatest of bets my pre-bet concerns came true and I really should only bet when I have more confidence in my selection. 2/5
Intro
I have started this blog with the intention of storing my thoughts and
reasons behind my bets in the optimistic challenge I’ve set myself to
try and turn £100 into £100,000 through gambling alone. I started this
said challenge a while ago and I’m vastly approaching 100 bets. It seems
I’m not doing very well in this venture as I’m currently down by £18.30
through 87 bets. I hope by writing out analysis for each of my bets and
then evaluating each bet after the result I can find out both my
strengths and weaknesses in my betting. I can then focus on my
strengths whilst at the same time try and improve on my weak areas.
Only through looking at your analysis beforehand and comparing it with
your thoughts after a bet can you concluded whether the bet you placed
was a good one. It is easy to say in hindsight your bet was a bad one if
it loses and a good one if it wins, this is of course faulty
logic. Betting is all about finding opportunities that represent value
(i.e. where the probability of the event happening does not equate to
the price offered). This can prevent quite a mental dilemma sometimes in
situations were good value bets can lose and bad value bets can win. It
is more a case of focusing on whether a bet was a value, if you
concentrate on finding this said value in the long-term profitably will
take care of itself.
The ultimately rather day-dreamy aim is the bank £100,000 somewhere along the way. I plan to 'bank' profit along the way if I reach certain targets. The first of these targets is £150. I shall do a full bet review every 100 bets to further analysis performance.
The ultimately rather day-dreamy aim is the bank £100,000 somewhere along the way. I plan to 'bank' profit along the way if I reach certain targets. The first of these targets is £150. I shall do a full bet review every 100 bets to further analysis performance.
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