Monday 25 November 2013

Bet 98

98.) West Brom v Aston Villa - LAY 0-0 @ 12

Pre-bet
Expect quite a lively game in this Midlands derby. It is true that both teams have been strong defnisviely recently (especially Aston Villa) but I feel there's plenty of attacking talent on display in this game to get the one goal required. Aston Villa start with two strikers in Benteke and Kozack. Whilst West Brom perhaps carry a little less attacking threat, they still have the likes of Sessegnon and Long who are always lively players capable of causing problem.

Result
West Brom 2-2 Aston Villa (+1.56)

Verdict
I was expecting a lively game and this is just what happened. Long was in brilliant form for West Brom and the first goal came after just three minutes. The rest of the game was a open, attacking affair and further validated my bet. 5/5

Friday 22 November 2013

Bet 97

97.) Hull City v Crystal Palace - LAY 3-0 @ 20

Pre-bet
These two teams were promoted to the Premier League together but have both had very different starts to the season. Hull City have been involved in a number of low-scoring games and their strength has been keeping the game tight defensively. Looks like Palace will still be under caretaker manager Keith Mullen for this game, although Tony Pulis looks set to be announced new manager and therefore may have some impact in this game. Palace put in a decent performance against Everton in their last game and it was only due to poor finishing that they don't win the game. Despite the big gap in league positions I don't think there's a great difference in the quality between the two squads and I expect a close game with not many goals here. Therefore 3-0 looks incredibly unlikely seeing as Hull have only scored 9 in their first 11 games and that Palace have looked a more defensively secure in recent games.

Result
Hull 0-1 Crystal Palace (+£0.89)

Verdict
Pretty much got my prediction of the game spot on here. Turned into a close encounter like I was expecting and a Palace win wasn't a total surprise for me here. Hull still lack goal threat. 5/5

Friday 15 November 2013

Bet 96

96.) England v Chile - LAY 0-0 @ 13.5

Pre-bet
Must be said I'm not usually much of a fan of betting on friendlies but I thought this was an opportunity too good to pass up. Chile are a very attacking team and almost always involved in high-scoring games. England do have a number of players missing for this game but still have decent enough attacking threats including a few players who will be eager to impress to try and force their way into the squad for the World Cup in Brazil. Overall a 0-0 looks unlikely here, freindlies can sometimes turn out to be stale affairs but I think this one looks more likely to into an open, attacking game.

Result
England 0-2 Chile (+£1.33)

Verdict
Didn't turn out quite as attacking as I was expecting. The second half was a little sedate although there was enough attacking play first to warrant it not ending 0-0. 2/5

Wednesday 13 November 2013

Bet 95

95.) Mexico v New Zealand - LAY Over 5.5 goals @ 11.5

Pre-bet
There is a quite a few assumptions going on in this bet. Although I think they are fair. New Zealand will surely set-up in a very defensive manner here knowing the best chance they have of qualifying for the World Cup is to keep this game tight, even willingly take a narrow defeat here and hope they can overcome the defect in the second leg. There's the danger with this bet that Mexico could indeed blow New Zealand away and score a number of goals. Mexico have chosen a squad of players solely based in the domestic league, hard to say whether this is an advantage or a disadvantage. On one hand all the players will be use to the conditions and won't have much traveling to undertake whereas they will be without their talented European-based players. Mexico haven't been in great form during the qualifiers, it is indeed a little bit of a shock they are having to go through this play-off after finishing only 4th in the CONCACAF qualifying with the players at their disposal they should be challenging for top spot. Overall I see a good chance of a solid New Zealand display which could frustrate Mexico. There's plenty of margin for error with this bet as well, Mexico could win quite handsomely say four or five-nil and this bet would still be a winner.

Result
Mexico 5-1 New Zealand (-£23.31)

Verdict
In hindsight easy to see that I didn't have the required knowledge of the two teams to really have any right to be betting in this game. I try to follow international football as best I can but truthfully I've not watched either of these team for a while. So I was doing nothing but going off statistics and previous results. Since my challenge is meant to be a cautious attempt at betting on a things that I'm certain on this was definitely a bad move. Just because there's no games on you have a good knowledge of there's the great temptation to have a bet on a game you usually wouldn't. This was the case here but hopefully I can learn from this and never do such a thing again. 1/5

Sunday 10 November 2013

Bet 94

94.) Man City v Sunderland - LAY 0-0 @ 22

Pre-bet
Difficult to see this one ending 0-0. Man City are in such great form going forward, true they are without Silva for this one but Aguero especially is in fine goalscoring form at the moment. Up against one of the weakest defences in the league it would be a big surprise if they don't score. In addition I think this Sunderland team has got some decent attacking options, Fletcher is a good goalscorer and they have a few set-pieces specialist in their team (Gardner & Larsson) who are capable of producing something out of nothing. In addition Man City is always weaker without Kompany in their defence. Only worry for this bet is that Sunderland line-up really defensively and manage to hold out for a 0-0 draw. But I deem this very unlikely given Man City recent form and attacking threat.

Result
Man City 0-1 Sunderland (+£1.04)

Verdict
Despite this being a winning bet, I don't think it was such a good one. Sunderland put in a much better defensive performance than I was expecting. O.Shea & Brown were rightly praised for keeping Man City attack quiet. In addition I thought Man City missed the creativity of David Silva, he is a common key component in Man City's best side. However I rightly had concerns about Man City denfence with no Kompany, and Nastasić was also out. But this game could have very easily ended 0-0 and for that reason it was a questionable bet. 2/5

Bet 93

93.)  Tottenham v Newcastle - LAY Over 5.5 goals @ 15

Pre-bet
Placed largely on the fact Tottenham have a really strong defence yet have struggled for goals recently. Newcastle are a difficult team to try and evaluate and are often involved in games with plenty of goals. Overall I think six goals in this game is a little much to ask for in this game. My only worry is that Tottenham may find their goalscoring boots up against a Newcastle defence that has known to be fragile at times.

Result
Tottenham 0-1 Newcastle (+£1.49)

Verdict
I correctly predicted that Tottenham would once against struggle for goals. It is true there probably should have been more than one goal in this game with the amount of chances Tottenham had. Tim Krul had a good game in goal for Newcastle. Six goals never looked likely but there could have easily been a few more goals in this game as it was a rather open and attacking game. 4/5

Saturday 9 November 2013

Bet 92

92.) Norwich v West Ham - LAY Over 4.5 goals @ 8.6

Post-bet
There is an element of 'this match is on TV so I'll bet on it' in this bet. But when I looked at this fixture initially I thought this looks like a low-scoring game to me. West Ham's game is built on playing with a solid defence, especially away from home. Norwich continue to struggle in-front of goal, scoring only six all season. Despite leaking quite a few goals this season Norwich under Chris Hughton have a history of tight home games against similar quality opposition, they had numerous such examples last season involving one or two goals. My only slight worry is that Norwich go with an attacking line-up in this game playing two strikers and will surely be highly motivated to get a result. West Ham however keep with the tactic of playing no recognized striker in their line-up, which as to be a good thing for my bet.

Result
Norwich 3-1 West Ham (+£2.75)

Verdict
Turned out to be a rather more open game than I was expecting, especially second half. Although it must be said Norwich got back into the game through a goalkeeping mistake which led to the penalty. Beauty of bets at such short odds (or laying longer odds in the case) means there's a great margin of error. I wrongly thought this game wouldn't contain many goals but it didn't turn out that way. Also the fourth came in stoppage time so there wasn't really a time in which I felt there any danger of a fifth goal being scored. 2/5

Bet 91

91.) Liverpool v Fulham - LAY 2-0 @ 12 (IP '32)

Pre-bet
Took this bet in play after watching Liverpool storm to a 2-0 lead against a dejected looking Fulham side. Another goal looked an inevitability with Fulham being pin backed by wave after wave of Liverpool attacks.

Result
Liverpool 4-0 Fulham (+£1.95)

Verdict
Bet was in after only a few minutes of placing. Liverpool did ease off the gas a little second half but my bet was already a winner by this point. That is the only slight danger when taking bets like this in-play that when a team is ahead and in-control they may not have the desire to score another. But overall a very good bet and always nice to see it win so quickly. 4/5

Bet 90

90.) Liverpool v Fulham – LAY 0-0 @ 23

Pre-bet
I purposely set about this week’s fixtures looking to lay 0-0 in the Fulham game, the fact that they were playing Liverpool at Anfield just confirmed my selection. For Fulham’s defence has looked woeful to me in recent games and they’ve conceded some bad goals down to this poor defending. Up against perhaps the best striking partnership in the Premiership in Suarez and Sturridge it is very difficult not to see at least one goal in this. Despite Fulham’s poor defence they’ve also got numerous decent players in attacking areas and I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see Fulham get a goal in this game also. Overall the only concern is if Liverpool play poorly and Fulham manage to defend well and hold out for a 0-0. I deem this excessively unlikely and I think there will be plenty of shots on goal and chances in this game to get the goal I require.

Result
Liverpool 4-0 Fulham (+£0.92)

Verdict
Turned into a very open game like I predicted. Fulham just couldn't live with the Liverpool attack and this bet was a very easy winner. Good reasoning and the sort of bet I strive for all the time. 5/5

Bet 89

89.) Tottenham v Sherrif - BACK Over 1.5 goals @ 1.14

Pre-bet
I watched the reverse fixture between these two sides and it was a very open match that really should have had more than just the two goals in it. Most people would expect a comfortable Tottenham victory here, although Sherrif did set-up attack-minded and had plenty of chances in the reverse fixture but lacked composure in their finishing. Only concern is Tottenham's good defense and that they may settle for a 1-0 victory if they are ahead. This is on the high limit of bets I take on and I don't really want to be backing anything much longer than 1.15 since I'm using 25% stakes at the moment.

Result
Tottenham 2-1 Sherrif (+£2.75)

Verdict
Was a little concerned after first-half passed rather uneventful.  Tottenham broke the deadlock on the hour mark and I felt confident my bet would win from that point on. The game did open a little more second half and there was chances for both sides. Tottenham's quality won them the game in the end. But I was rightly aware of Sherrif's threat going forward, they hit the post first half and then got a goal in the second half.
Despite the scare of no goals till the hour mark. I think the bet was sound enough despite it not turning into a truly open game there was enough good chances and shots on goals to validate the bet I went with. 3/5

Bet 88

88.) Dortmund v  Arsenal - LAY 0-0 @ 20.88 (Avg. price)

Pre-match
Two very attacking sides who usually score plenty of goals. Slight reservation about Arsenal's good defensive record recently and them thinking a point would be a good result here. No goals seems highly unlikely.

Result
Dortmund 0-1 Arsenal (+£0.98)

Verdict
The first half didn't see many chances for either team, although Dortmund had a couple of decent openings. Second half much more attacking play but like I suggested pre-match Arsenal's defense looked strong and held up well against Dortmund. Arsenal scored and won the game to make my bet a winner. Overall don't think it was such a great bet considering the price to lay 0-0 was quite big and the fact there was only one goal in the game. Although second half was open a 0-0 wouldn't have been a total surprise. Not the greatest of bets my pre-bet concerns came true and I really should only bet when I have more confidence in my selection. 2/5

Intro

I have started this blog with the intention of storing my thoughts and reasons behind my bets in the optimistic challenge I’ve set myself to try and turn £100 into £100,000 through gambling alone. I started this said challenge a while ago and I’m vastly approaching 100 bets. It seems I’m not doing very well in this venture as I’m currently down by £18.30 through 87 bets. I hope by writing out analysis for each of my bets and then evaluating each bet after the result I can find out both my strengths and weaknesses in my betting. I can then focus on my strengths whilst at the same time try and improve on my weak areas. Only through looking at your analysis beforehand and comparing it with your thoughts after a bet can you concluded whether the bet you placed was a good one. It is easy to say in hindsight your bet was a bad one if it loses and a good one if it wins, this is of course faulty logic. Betting is all about finding opportunities that represent value (i.e. where the probability of the event happening does not equate to the price offered). This can prevent quite a mental dilemma sometimes in situations were good value bets can lose and bad value bets can win. It is more a case of focusing on whether a bet was a value, if you concentrate on finding this said value in the long-term profitably will take care of itself.

The ultimately rather day-dreamy aim is the bank £100,000 somewhere along the way. I plan to 'bank' profit along the way if I reach certain targets. The first of these targets is £150. I shall do a full bet review every 100 bets to further analysis performance.