Thursday, 5 December 2013


Here's my first review after 100 bets of this challenge:

Current Bank: £77.96
P/L: -£22.04

No. of bets: 100
Winning Bets: 92
Losing Bets: 8

Average bet rating (from Bet 88 to 100): 3.5
1s - 1
2s - 4
3s - 1
4s - 2
5s - 5

Losing Bets
20.) Malaga v Dortmund - LAY 0-0 @ 11.5
35.) Basel v Tottenham - BACK Sending Off? No @ 1.33
41.) Fulham v Chelsea - BACK Fulham (+2.5) @ 1.14
42.) Sunderland v Everton - LAY 1-0 @ 11.5
69.) Hull v Aston Villa - LAY 0-0 @ 9.2
73.) Aston Villa v Tottenham - LAY Townsend AGS @ 5.6
87.) Man City v CSKA Moscow - LAY Over 6.5 goals @ 18
95.) Mexico v New Zealand - LAY Over 5.5 goals @ 11.5

I've only been keeping a diary of bets since bet 88 so I don't have the full written evidence to full analysis my performance. But the 3.5 rating may suggest I'm fairly happy with the bets I've had since I started keeping note but I don't think it does. I want to keep this rating as high as possible of course but the key perhaps is to avoid bets lower than 3 and any bet rating given less 3 or less is a bad one or a questionable one in my eyes. I should mostly me aiming for 4s and 5s. From the bets I notice 6 out of the 13 bets I have given a 3 rating or less, I need to improve on this, although I realise it is impossible for every bet to run smoothly I'd like to see the majority do so because this indicates good betting choices and that will equal profit in the long-run.

Having looked back through the losing bets I do notice some common themes. 4 out of the 8 losing bets are from games outside of the Premiership, Bet 20 and 87 are both Champions League, Bet 35 is a Europa League game and 95 a World Cup qualifier. The majority of my bets have been from Premiership games, losing bets from other competition are over-represented here and a big reason for me operating at a loss. The lessons here should really be to stick to what you know best and don't bet on games you little knowledge in (Bets 20 and 95 fall foul to this). In addition a few of the bets fall outside the odds range I'm trying to stay clear from now Bets 35, 41 and 73 are all bets at odds which are probably too short for this challenge because I'm staking a large proportion of my bank each time. I have tried reverse logic in a few of my bets as in going against what even I expected hoping that the odds had taken this into account too much. In hindsight the Bet 69 and 87 look particularly poor in this regard as the games ended with results which weren't entirely unpredictable given what had happened previously.

True to say you are always looking for value you with your bets. But I always feel more comfortable when you actually have a great confidence in that thing happening. I have a particularly good record with the Under 4.5 goals market having got 12 out of 12 correct so far.

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